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Notes from THE HAVEN
Sunday, December 14, 2003
What a wonderful Christmas present for the US. Not only did they capture Sadaam yesterday, they did not find him in some barricade with high-tech equipment and hundreds of troops, planning for his next term in office, they found him in a hole large enough to fit the fallen dictator, with a vent tube and comoed by bricks and sand (so stupid of his dictatorship-liking comrades as the house this hole was in was in mint condition). The bearded Maadas (spelt backwards) was in poor shape and well bearded.. I somehow do not think Osama (his acclaimed mate) would be hiding as such. I guess there is more honour taking a religeous standpoint than a dicatorship.
As an analyst, I am deemed to explore the probable impact capturing Maadas this way would have on the world economy and expecially for Hong Kong.
Sadaam has proven that he is indeed powerless and the rest of the deranged forces he has, driving along 100 meters outside of the US base camp and launching grenades to increase the number of post-war casualties and deaths, have no guidence and sturcture and therefore no power. Bad Boy's "peoples" would see their fallen leader as a scruffy hole-hiding powerless prisoner and see that there is no point to get him freed nor any hope in any of his past regimes.
This means that a handover to a Iraqi government will be more swift and less costly. This also means that the likes of Japan, Australia etc.. who have agreed to deploy troops to the country may not have to spend billions to do so. France, on the otherhand is still skiing the Alps. The Iraqi people are happy because the strife is over and they can get on with things and they will probrably agree to some sort of deal with America on oil trade.
Needless to say the saving on deploying troops to the middle east would save tons of money, the America have had a victory and in a sense, many across the world support this victory even though they may not have supported the war. The American economy came to a standstill as the war was carried out, the dollar kept dropping and there was continuous spending on the war. Then we can now predict a halt in the strengtheing of the Pound, Yen and Euro and an increase in consumption of US dollars. US dollars, low, good time to buy.
As the US are congradulated for their victory, the world can get on with business at ease and do things it would normally do without the uncertainties attached to war. Invesments will increase, spending will increase, buying debt will also increase. The future oil agreement will also aid in US' bounce back, covering much of the expenditure on liberating Iraq.
For good old 852, this means that we also will enjoy an increase in wealth as our pegged dollar value also will increase. The property market has already recovered from its SARS days and stedily bouncing back. Though JP Morgan and HSBC collectively fired 30% of their world wide Associate level staff, they will regret that action as the enconomy will see a gradual need for spending. Unfortunate but too bad. Unemployment will decrease which will allow for a more flexible budget for the Tung administration to spend on bringing in business and invesment to Hong Kong. Hopefully none of the repeat of the Harbour Fest fiasco.
It is now Christmas time and acros the world, one of the many thanks people will give to God is the capture of Sadaam. Personally, I was never against the war. I am against war but if it is inevitable such as this one, then I could not be repulsed by it. Therefore, I will rejoice to the fact that the bloodshed will soon come to rest and that economies will come out of depression. With wealthier naitons, there are possibilities to re-distribute funds to countries in need. Amen.